Introduction
War is an extension of the political aim. This is the famous dictum enunciated by two great military theorists, General Von Clausewitz and the Chinese military theoretician, Sun Tzu.
In this article, I will not discuss the political aims and concentrate on the war which is going on in Ukraine. Russia may or may not have legitimate grievances but nevertheless, the Russians under Putin were greatly concerned that they would be reduced as a nation of no consequence in the scenario unfolding on the European continent.
The Russian president decided to force a military solution and invaded Ukraine from three directions. Most people expected the operation to be over in 72 hours but though six days have elapsed the Russian army has made slow progress. They have also suffered heavy casualties. As per the latest reports, almost 5,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and tens of tanks and AP carriers destroyed. The Russian invasion has floundered in the quicksand of Ukraine. The Russians have however not given up and have regrouped for a final trust.
The battle
The battle commenced on 24th February. Putin committed a major blunder similar to what the Russian army did in Afghanistan. The battle in Afghanistan started when the Russian army moved into Afghanistan but in the age of satellite surveillance the Americans could get a complete picture down to platoon level position of soldiers and this was passed in real-time to the Taliban who would attack them and inflict casualties. It was a proxy war and the Russians could do nothing about it. After 10 years of fighting and thousands of casualties, Russia decided to withdraw.
Similarly in Ukraine when the Russian army advanced, the European allies for once got united against Russia. They joined the USA and through their surveillance systems are able to pinpoint the advance of the Russian army into Ukraine. This information was passed in real-time to the Ukrainians and at the same time, lethal weapons were transported from the nearby European Nations into Ukraine. The result was terrible for the Russian army as with stinger missiles and other sophisticated weapons as well as real-time knowledge of the position of Russian troops the Ukrainian army could easily target them. This factor of real-time information being passed to the army of Ukraine with gifted lethal weapons was something Russian military leadership had overlooked. If they had carried out all the courses of action as we study in the Defense Services Staff College they would have realized that one of the courses of action which they would face in Ukraine is external help from adjoining countries as well as satellite surveillance and pinpointing of the Russian troops and armor.
Putin absolutely failed to gauge the strength of the opposition and the fact that Europe was now united.
Europe has been the home of two world wars and at that time nuclear weapons were not available, otherwise, Europe would have gone back to the stone age. Coming to the present battle, the Russian army is bogged down. In the fight, the Ukrainian military equipped with the latest weaponry has inflicted heavy casualties on personnel and equipment.
I think 200 Russian soldiers have been taken as prisoners of war. Russian forces are still fighting for the capital Kyiv and the key city of Kharkiv. They are now regrouping for a final offensive. Satellite pictures show a huge column of Russian armor and soldiers spread over many miles moving towards the capital Kyiv.
Epilogue
Vladimir Putin has now upped the ante. He has threatened the use of nuclear forces and this should not be dismissed as an empty threat. The Russian nuclear forces are on alert and have carried out nuclear drills.
The West has imposed economic sanctions including the SWIFT embargo. Russia feels that the west has hatched a conspiracy to destroy the country. In the circumstances, the Russians are not going to withdraw from Ukraine but will continue the offensive and there could come a time that they may launch a limited nuclear strike.
There is an excellent precedent of a similar situation during World War II. In 1941 a trade embargo had been enforced on Japan with the result at one stage Japan had oil for just three weeks. It forced the Japanese to launch a pre-emptive attack on Pearl Harbor. The Western leadership must keep in mind the tightening of too many screws on Russia could be counterproductive and could spell the death of European civilization.
This war could have been easily avoided if the United States and Western Europe had agreed to the Russian demand for a security guarantee and assurance that Ukraine will not be made part of NATO.
There is much backslapping going on that Russia has been cornered with economic sanctions but all this will evaporate in no time in case Russia uses the nuclear option which is likely and should not be dismissed out of hand. The consequences of this will be terrible and the small countries of Europe will simply cease to exist.
Europe has always, for the last 125 years been the center of all major wars in the world. The wars at that time were fought with conventional weapons but now there is a nuclear option.
There is only one option to get away from this disaster if Vladimir Putin is removed by the Russian people but I wonder if that is possible. Alternatively, security grantees can be given to Russia but maybe that stage is passed. Sadly, what Europe needs is a Gandhi. In the absence of such a personality, Europe may sign its own death warrant
